Poker Variance Calculator

What is a poker variance calculator?

A poker variance calculator uses your win rate and standard deviation to simulate thousands of possible futures, so you can see how far your results can swing purely from luck. It answers the question every winning player eventually asks: is this downswing normal, or am I actually losing? Variance is the reason a real winner can run below expectation for a long stretch, and it is why bankroll management exists in the first place.

How to read the results

• The graph plots a handful of sample runs at your win rate, the straight expected line, and the 95% band. The spread between the runs is your variance made visible.
• Confidence intervals tell you where your result is likely to finish. A positive win rate can still land in the red across a surprising number of hands.
• Downswings show how deep a normal losing stretch runs. A 20 buy-in downswing is uncomfortable but common; that is the point.
• Risk of ruin is the chance a bankroll of the size you entered ever goes broke if you play forever at this win rate and standard deviation.

Where do the inputs come from?

Win rate is your bb/100. Standard deviation is how much your per-100-hand results vary; typical values run near 80 to 100 bb/100 for no-limit hold'em cash and far higher for tournaments and PLO. Pull your real standard deviation from your tracking software rather than guessing, since it drives everything. Tracker+ records your hands and results so your inputs reflect your actual game, not an assumption.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many hands does it take to beat variance?

There is no fixed number, but for a modest cash win rate it commonly takes hundreds of thousands of hands before results reliably reflect skill. Run your own win rate and hand count above to see how wide the 95% band still is.

Is a big downswing a sign of a leak?

Not by itself. The downswing figures above show that swings of 15 to 30 buy-ins happen to winning players purely from variance. A leak shows up as a win rate that stays negative over a large sample, not as one deep dip.

What standard deviation should I use?

Use your own from your tracker if you can. As rough defaults, tighter full-ring hold'em sits lower, six-max is around 90 to 100 bb/100, and PLO and loose games run higher. The presets above set sensible starting points.

What is risk of ruin?

Risk of ruin is the probability that your bankroll ever hits zero if you keep playing at the same win rate and standard deviation. A positive win rate with enough buy-ins drives it toward zero; a break-even or losing win rate pushes it toward certainty.