Same Stacks, Different Payouts: What the Bubble Changes at Every Seat
Two 8-handed solves, identical stacks, one difference: the bubble. Deep stacks open wider, short stacks stop flat-calling, and the chip leader defends more but calls jams less.
Most bubble advice comes down to one line: short stacks tighten up, big stacks attack. It sounds right, and it is half right. To test it properly you need two solves that differ in exactly one way. GTO Ranges+ has them: two 8-handed tournament spots with the same eight stacks in the same eight seats, one solved for chip EV and one solved near the money bubble. Same blinds, same antes, same seats. The only thing that changes is what the chips are worth.
The result is cleaner and stranger than the slogan. The two deep stacks below the chip leader open wider on the bubble. Every stack of 34bb or less opens tighter, and against a big-stack open the flat call almost disappears. And the 84bb chip leader, the player the slogan is about, defends wider against opens while calling jams less often than it would for chips.
Blinds 0.5 / 1bb + 1bb big-blind ante
2.5bb in the pot before anyone acts
The same eight stacks in both solves. Blue: the three deep stacks. The BB covers everyone, the HJ covers everyone except the BB, and the LJ covers everyone except the BB and HJ. The only difference between the two solves is the payout structure.
1The experiment
Both solves are 8-handed with a 40bb average stack: UTG 34bb, MP 22bb, LJ 59bb, HJ 62bb, CO 26bb, BTN 24bb, SB 8bb, BB 84bb. Blinds are 0.5bb and 1bb with a 1bb big-blind ante, so 2.5bb is in the middle before anyone acts, and the standard open is 2.25bb. One solve treats chips as money (chip EV). The other is solved near the money bubble of a large field with a 150-place payout, so every chip lost costs more than a chip won is worth: the core of ICM. If ICM is new to you, start there. This post is about what it does to real ranges.
One technical note before the numbers. The two trees offer slightly different 3-bet sizes against a 2.25bb open (chip EV: 5.5bb and 8.25bb, or 6.5bb and 9.5bb from the big blind; bubble: 5bb and 8bb, or 5bb, 7bb and 13bb from the big blind). So where sizes differ, compare totals: how often a seat calls, 3-bets without going all-in, jams or folds. All percentages below are shares of all 1,326 starting combos, straight from the full 169-hand ranges.
2Opening: the deep stacks get wider
| Seat | Stack | Chip EV | Bubble | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTG | 34bb | 17.4% | 14.4% | −3.0 |
| MP | 22bb | 19.2% | 14.1% | −5.1 |
| LJ | 59bb | 22.0% | 24.6% | +2.6 |
| HJ | 62bb | 26.7% | 31.9% | +5.2 |
| CO | 26bb | 31.8% | 25.1% | −6.7 |
| BTN | 24bb | 40.7% (36.8 open, 3.9 jam) | 29.6% (25.8 open, 3.8 jam) | −11.1 |
| SB | 8bb | 77.4% (59.9 jam, 17.6 limp) | 63.1% (45.9 jam, 17.1 limp, 0.2 raise) | −14.3 |
First-in opening frequency, folded to each seat, as a share of all 1,326 starting combos. Source: GTO Ranges+.
Five seats tighten. Two loosen. The two that loosen are the LJ (59bb) and HJ (62bb), the two deepest stacks after the chip leader, with mostly short stacks left to act behind them. The bubble does not make big stacks aggressive in general. It makes the stacks behind them unwilling to fight, and the two deep stacks are the ones positioned to take advantage.
HJ, 62bb. It loses nothing it opens for chips, and it adds a block of hands it never opens for chips: Q7s, Q6s, K4s, J7s and 76s go from 0 to 2% to 100%, T7s to 98%, K9o to 97%, K3s to 90%. A5o goes from 13% to 100%, 22 from 20% to 100%.
LJ, 59bb. The same direction, smaller: K6s and K5s go from 0% to 100%, Q8s from 25% to 100%, J8s from 40% to 100%, QTo from 0% to 53%. The only hand it opens less is 33 (100% to 68%).
UTG, 34bb drops J9s (100% to 9%), T8s and 98s entirely, and cuts 55, KJo and A3s to well under half. MP, 22bb drops A3s, A9o, J9s and T8s to 0 to 3%, and 66 to 18%.
CO, 26bb is the most striking: 22, 33, A4o, A5o, A6o and K9o go from 100% to 0%. BTN, 24bb loses 22, 76s, 86s, A2o to A4o, K2s, K3s, K8o, J9o and T9o entirely. Several are the same hands the HJ adds (22, A5o, K9o, 76s, K3s): the deeper stacks pick up the spots the shorter ones give away.
SB, 8bb vs the 84bb big blind. The jam drops from 59.9% to 45.9% and the fold rises from 22.6% to 36.9%, while the limp stays almost flat (17.6% to 17.1%). Weak suited and offsuit hands that jam or limp for chips (43s, 53s, 63s, 73s, 74s, 82s to 84s, 76o, 86o, 96o) all go to 0%. Some hands shift down a level instead of folding: Q2o goes from an 89% jam to a 64% limp, 95s from a 100% jam to a 100% limp. If 8bb push-fold is your weak spot, the charts in Preflop+ are the place to drill the chip EV baseline first.
The HJ open, side by side
Orange is a raise, charcoal is a fold. The right grid is the left grid plus a band of suited kings, queens and connectors, two offsuit hands (K9o, A5o) and 22.
HJ (62bb) open: chip EV
Opens 26.7% of hands
HJ (62bb) open: bubble
Opens 31.9% of hands
3Facing an open: the flat call disappears
The biggest change in the whole tree is not an opening range. It is what the short and mid stacks do when a deep stack opens in front of them.
| Facing HJ (62bb) open | Flat call | 3-bet (not all-in) | Jam | Fold |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO 26bb, chip EV | 10.7% | 2.1% | 4.3% | 82.9% |
| CO 26bb, bubble | 0.8% | 6.4% | 1.7% | 91.0% |
| BTN 24bb, chip EV | 11.2% | 1.1% | 7.4% | 80.4% |
| BTN 24bb, bubble | 0.4% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 89.6% |
| SB 8bb, chip EV | 19.0% | – | 17.7% | 63.3% |
| SB 8bb, bubble | 2.8% | 0.1% | 12.8% | 84.3% |
For chips, the CO calls the HJ open 10.7% of the time. On the bubble it calls 0.8%. The BTN goes from 11.2% to 0.4%, the SB from 19.0% to 2.8%. The hands that were calling do not become 3-bets. They mostly fold: the CO folds 44, 55, A4s, A7s, ATo, KJo, K9s, Q9s, QTs, JTs and T9s at 97 to 100% on the bubble, all of which it played for chips.
Why? A flat call with 26bb against a 62bb stack starts a pot in which the deeper stack can put your whole stack at risk on a later street, and you have given up the fold equity a 3-bet carries. On the bubble, that kind of open-ended risk is exactly what ICM punishes. What survives is the decisive part of the range: 3-bets without going all-in (2.1% to 6.4% for the CO) and some jams. The CO's jam frequency drops (4.3% to 1.7%) while its non-all-in 3-bet frequency triples, so even the aggression gets smaller. For how the stacks still to act change a shove's fold equity, see overlay from the stacks behind.
CO (26bb) vs the HJ open, side by side
Blue is a call, orange a 3-bet, crimson a jam. Almost all of the blue on the left is gone on the right.
CO (26bb) vs HJ open: chip EV
Calls 10.7%, raises 2.1%, jams 4.3%
CO (26bb) vs HJ open: bubble
Calls 0.8%, raises 6.4%, jams 1.7%
When the short stack opens instead
Flip it around: MP (22bb) opens and the deep stacks act behind. Here the deep stacks change how they play, not how often. The HJ continues 12.4% for chips and 12.1% on the bubble, but its flat call drops from 7.4% to 4.3% and its 3-bet to 5bb goes up to 7.8%. The hands that move are the strongest and the most playable suited aces: AA goes from a 66% flat call to an 84% 3-bet, KK from a 64% flat to a 96% 3-bet, and A5s, A4s and A3s, which fold or flat for chips, now 3-bet 77 to 86% of the time. Middling pairs and suited broadways go the other way: 77 folds 69%, JTs 60%.
The logic is the mirror image of section 3: a small 3-bet from a stack that covers the 22bb opener forces a decision for its whole stack, and the opener now faces that decision on the bubble.
4The chip leader: wider against opens, tighter against jams
The 84bb big blind covers everyone at the table. If any player should use the bubble, it is this one. The data says it does, but not in the way most players assume.
Defends 66.1% for chips, 75.8% on the bubble. Calls go from 56.7% to 64.2%, 3-bets from 9.4% to 11.4%. Hands that fold 100% for chips now defend: Q5o, T7o and 96o call 90 to 100%, and K2o calls 43% and 3-bets to 13bb 55%. The HJ opens wider on the bubble, and the big blind widens its defense with it.
Defends about the same (72.4% vs 71.6%), but the 3-bet structure flips. For chips, the big blind jams 24bb 13.5% of the time, with hands like TT, 99 and AQo at 100% and AKo at 66%. On the bubble the jam drops to 4.4% and the value moves to small 3-bets: AA 3-bets to 5bb 65% of the time and to 7bb 35%, KK through TT 3-bet to 7bb 90 to 99%, AKo and AQo 100% to 7bb. The 24bb jam is now built from hands like A5s (48% jam, 52% to 13bb), K9s (64% jam) and 99 (27% jam). The premiums stop jamming and choose small 3-bets instead.
Calls 16.0% for chips, 11.4% on the bubble. Facing a 24bb jam with 84bb behind, the big blind cannot bust. It still drops 33, A5s, A6s, QJs, A8o and JTs to 0%, KQo to 6% and KTs to 10%. Under ICM, chips lost are worth more than chips won, even for the chip leader. Covering everyone lowers that cost, but it does not remove it.
BB (84bb) vs 24bb BTN jam: chip EV
Calls 16.0%
BB (84bb) vs 24bb BTN jam: bubble
Calls 11.4%
Calls 52.4% for chips, 43.0% on the bubble against an 8bb SB jam that is itself tighter on the bubble. The hands that drop out are the bottom of the calling range: Q2s to Q4s, J5s, J6s, 97s, T7s and offsuit hands like K2o, J7o, J8o, T8o and Q5o to Q7o all go from 100% to 0%.
Put together, the chip leader on the bubble widens against the deep stacks' opens and tightens against the short stacks' jams. For the wider bubble picture, see surviving the money bubble; for how these dynamics look later on, see the final-table seat-by-seat breakdown.
5Heuristics you can use at the table
- Before you open on the bubble, look at the stacks behind you. In this solve the two deep stacks (59bb and 62bb), with mostly short stacks left to act, open wider than for chips. Every stack of 34bb or less opens tighter. The LJ and HJ add whole families of suited kings and queens; the CO and BTN drop small pairs and offsuit aces.
- Stop flat-calling big-stack opens with a short or mid stack. Against a 62bb open, the 22 to 26bb stacks flat 0.4 to 0.8% on the bubble. Your hand is a 3-bet, a jam, or a fold.
- When you cover a short opener, 3-bet small with your best hands and your suited aces. AA, KK and AKo stop flatting; A5s to A3s join them. Middling pairs and suited broadways fold more.
- As the chip leader, defend wide against the deep stacks' opens. Against the HJ, the big blind defends 75.8% on the bubble instead of 66.1%.
- As the chip leader, call jams tighter, not looser. 16.0% becomes 11.4% against a 24bb jam, and 52.4% becomes 43.0% against an 8bb SB jam.
- Use small 3-bets for value against short opens. The bubble big blind 3-bets premiums to 5 to 7bb against the 24bb button instead of jamming, and saves the jam for hands like A5s and K9s.
6The mistakes this fixes
| What players do | What GTO Ranges+ does on the bubble | The cost |
|---|---|---|
| Every deep stack plays tighter "because it is the bubble" | The 59bb and 62bb stacks open 2.6 and 5.2 points wider | Leaving uncontested blinds and antes to the stacks that should be taking them |
| Short and mid stacks flat big-stack opens to "see a flop cheaply" | Flats 0.4 to 2.8% and folds the rest of the old calling range | Building big pots with no fold equity, at the worst possible time |
| The chip leader calls every short-stack jam it is getting a price on | Calls 11.4% vs a 24bb jam instead of 16.0% | Giving up chips that are worth more than the ones it wins |
| The chip leader jams its value hands over short opens | 3-bets premiums small and jams hands like A5s and K9s | Jamming hands that GTO Ranges+ prefers to 3-bet small |
Frequently asked questions
Do big stacks play looser on the bubble?
Some do. In this GTO Ranges+ comparison the 59bb and 62bb stacks open wider (LJ 22.0% to 24.6%, HJ 26.7% to 31.9%) and the 84bb chip leader defends wider against the HJ's open (66.1% to 75.8%). But the chip leader calls jams less often, and the deep stacks change how they play against short openers (more small 3-bets, fewer flats) rather than how often they play.
Should a short stack call a raise on the bubble?
Almost never as a flat call against a deep stack. With 24 to 26bb against a 62bb open, GTO Ranges+ flat-calls 0.4 to 0.8% on the bubble versus about 11% for chips. The playable hands become 3-bets or jams, and most of the old calling range folds.
Should the chip leader call more jams on the bubble?
No. Covering everyone lowers the chip leader's risk, but it does not remove it. Facing a 24bb button jam, the 84bb big blind calls 11.4% on the bubble against 16.0% for chips, and against an 8bb SB jam it calls 43.0% instead of 52.4%.
The takeaway
The bubble is not one adjustment. It is a reshuffle of who gets to be aggressive, decided by who covers whom. The deep stacks below the chip leader open wider. Everyone shorter opens tighter and stops flat-calling. The chip leader takes on the deep stacks and avoids marginal all-ins against the short ones. Pull both versions of this table in GTO Ranges+, save the four or five spots that surprised you as custom drills, and work through them until the bubble version feels normal. To see what your own stack is worth in money terms before a big decision, run it through the ICM Calculator.
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