Same Stacks, Different Payouts

"Short stacks tighten, big stacks attack" is half right. GTO Ranges+ has two 8-handed tournament solves with the same eight stacks in the same eight seats, one for chip EV and one near the money bubble. Payouts are the only difference, so this week's Deep Dive could measure exactly what the bubble changes.

The two deep stacks below the chip leader open wider on the bubble. Every stack of 34bb or less opens tighter:

How often each seat plays when folded to, same eight stacks in both solves. Blue: wider on the bubble. Orange: tighter. Source: GTO Ranges+.

Two more findings. Against the 62bb HJ's open, the 26bb CO flat-calls 10.7% for chips and 0.8% on the bubble: it 3-bets or folds. And the 84bb chip leader, who covers everyone, calls a 24bb jam 11.4% of the time instead of 16.0%.

Strategy Spotlight: Two Check-Raise Sizes, Two Jobs

Most players have one check-raise size. The big blind in a solved 100bb single-raised pot has two, and Solver+ uses them for different hands. Against a quarter-pot c-bet it raises either to 3.45bb or to 6.21bb. The big raise is polar: on K-7-2, 22 raises big 94% and 77 74%, alongside no-showdown bluffs. The small raise is merged: K6s raises small 48%, a weak top pair that wants a call.

Board texture picks the mix. Dry K-7-2 splits it 12.6% small and 11.1% big; connected 9-8-4 goes 1.5% small and 15.7% big. And the button folds only 14 to 27% to the small raise, against 38 to 46% to the big one. Train the big blind's flop decision in Postflop+, or read how the big blind picks its check-raise size.

Hand of the Week: A♠ K♦ Checks Back

The spot: 100bb cash, you open the button to 2.5bb with A♠ K♦ and the big blind calls. Pot 5.5bb. Flop 8♠ 6♥ 3♣, and the big blind checks. Two overcards, no pair, no draw. C-bet?

Solver+ says no: AKo checks back 95% of the time. The button still bets plenty here, 12.3% small and 46.9% at 4.4bb, but that big bet goes to hands like 99 and TT (100%), the 54s open-ender (94%) and JTs (94%). AK is not in that group. It has showdown value against the big blind's missed hands and nothing to protect, so it takes the free card. In our delayed c-bet study, the same kind of hand (AK on Q-8-6) checked back 80% and then bet 99% when an ace peeled on the turn.

Tool Tip: Is the Big Blind Defending Enough?

Run the same flop through our free MDF Calculator. Against a 1.38bb bet into 5.5bb, minimum defense frequency says continue about 80%; against a 4.4bb bet, about 55.6%. Solver+ has the big blind continuing 77.3% and 51.9% on 8-6-3: close to the line, slightly under it.

MDF is a guardrail, not a strategy. It tells you when you are folding so much that any two cards profit against you. Check your own fold-to-c-bet stat against it before you trust your defense.

This Week in Poker

The cruelest bubble. A WSOP Circuit Main Event bubble burst with a double elimination on the stone bubble of a must-bag day. It is the payout pressure from this week's lead article in its rawest form.

Adelstein back at the table. Garrett Adelstein returned to the Commerce for a high-stakes cash game and spoke about how his new book changed his relationship with poker fans.

Put It Into Practice

Drill both versions of the bubble table in GTO Ranges+, pull the full check-raise split for any flop in Solver+, and train postflop decisions in Postflop+. New posts land on the blog every week.

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